Last year we saw flurries on Halloween + this year kids were out trick-or-treating without being bundled up. The warm-for-Wisconsin weather has us wondering — when will this year’s first snowfall happen?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a shift to bitter cold for this winter season, with Madison predicted to have a cold + dry wintertide, meaning we’ll have colder temps but less snow. Now we’re curious... How accurate is the oldest continuously published periodical for Madison snowfall?

A breakdown of this year’s upcoming winter conditions. | Photo from The Old Farmer’s Almanac

In order to make its yearly predictions, the Farmer’s Almanac looks at solar science, — the study of sunspots + other activity — climatology, and meteorology. The publication claims to have an 80% accuracy rate on its predictions.

A light dusting of snow over the isthmus. | Photo by @wineguyphotography

Take a look at the last three winters and decide for yourself if Madison winters were accurately predicted.

2018-2019

Almanac prediction — warm + wet
First snow > 1” in Madison — Nov. 9
Last snow > 1” in Madison — April 27
Number of days below 0°F — 20 days
Total snowfall — 57”

2019-2020

Almanac prediction — mild, with soakers
First snow > 1” in Madison — Oct. 28
Last snow > 1” in Madison — March 18
Number of days below 0°F — 4 days
Total snowfall — 54”

2020-2021

Almanac prediction — more wet than white
First snow > 1” in Madison — Nov. 24
Last snow > 1” in Madison — March 15
Total snowfall — 55”

Typically, the average date for the first 1″ snowfall in Madison is Nov. 27. And, based on a cold + dry forecast for southern Wisconsin, we’re guessing we might not see snow until the end of the month. But hey, don’t quote us on that.