Can you believe we reached the first 100º day of the year? Now might be a good time to go over the forecast for the season (remember to hydrate and put on sunscreen, everybody).

Between the approaching El Niño phenomenon and a not-so-fun hot day, here’s what to expect this summer in San Antonio.

First off — 100º already?

The forecast calls for a high of 100º for the rest of the week. Last year San Antonio experienced 17 days of triple digit heat in June, and 5 in May.

Average first 100º day: June 26
Earliest recorded first 100º day: February 21, 1996
First 100º in 2022: May

So, will it be hot or not?

As much as we like to talk about it, the first triple-digit day is one of several factors that determine the seasonal outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a hotter-than-average summer for the southern US. The Central Texas region has a 50-60% chance of warmer temperatures through August, with normal rain conditions.

NOAA climatologists predict a hotter-than-average summer in San Antonio this year. | Graphic via NOAA

You might be wondering, what about El Niño? You’d be right to ask.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern based on cyclical trade winds and warm water in the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño — which takes place every 3-5 years and lasts roughly one year — wetter, cooler weather often sweeps through the southern US.

El Niño conditions are currently present, but the pattern is still developing. San Antonians might not see its cooling effects until winter.

Even with hotter-than-average temperatures, this summer will probably not bring record-breaking heat like last year. The hottest summers in Texas almost take place during La Niña, El Niño’s opposite twin.

Long story short: It’ll be hot this summer, but we’ll make it through.