With the first 100º day of the year perilously close (remember to hydrate and put on sunscreen, everybody), now might be a good time to go over the forecast for the season.

Between the approaching El Niño phenomenon and an earlier-than-average triple-digit day, here’s what to expect this summer in Austin.

First off — 100º already?

The forecast currently calls for a high of 100º this Sunday, June 11. Although it might not seem like it due to recent summers, this is actually earlier than average for ATX.

Average first 100º day: July 9
Earliest recorded first 100º day: May 4, 1984
First 100º in 2022: May 21

So, will it be hot or not?

As much as we like to talk about it, the first triple-digit day is just one of several factors that determine the seasonal outlook.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a hotter-than-average summer for the southern US. The Central Texas region has a 50-60% chance of warmer temperatures through August, with normal rain conditions.

NOAA climatologists predict a hotter-than-average summer in Austin this year. | Graphic via NOAA

But, you might be wondering, what about El Niño? You’d be right to ask.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern based on cyclical trade winds and warm water in the Pacific Ocean. During El Niño — which takes place every 3-5 years and lasts roughly one year — wetter, cooler weather often sweeps through the southern US.

El Niño conditions are currently present, but the pattern is still developing. Austinites might not see most of its cooling effects until winter.

That said, even with hotter-than-average temperatures, this summer will probably not bring record-breaking heat like last year. The hottest summers in Texas almost always take place during La Niña, El Niño’s opposite twin.

Long story short: It’ll be hot this summer, but we’ll make it through.