We know the question on your mind, Austinites — when’s it going to get cold again? Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for December, January, and February.

While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The first day of winter is on Wednesday, Dec. 21.

Prepare for a warmer-than-average winter this season, Austin. | Map via NOAA.

🌡️ Temperature

Think warm. This winter, Austin has a 40-50% chance of temperatures being higher than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect slightly less precipitation. The Capital City has a 40-50% chance of seeing below normal rainfall amounts this winter.

☀️ Drought

Bad news, Austin — drought conditions are expected to persist this season.

Dive into December

In a typical year, December in Austin means mild temperatures and minimal rainfall. The average temperature for the month is ~60º — perfect for an afternoon stroll along Lady Bird Lake. Although this month got off to a warmer-than-average start, cold-weather lovers can rejoice: a cold front is sweeping in next week and bringing our days back down into the 50s and 60s.

Jumping to January

Although it’s too far out to know for sure, January weather tends to mirror December in ATX. Temperatures are expected to range in the 40s and 50s, and average yearly snowfall typically amounts to a whopping 10 mm.

February’s forecast

Recent years may be exceptions to this trend (see: Winter Storm Uri), but February is actually the second-coldest month in Austin on average, behind January. Temperatures typically stay between 40º-60º, and precipitation is sparse: average levels amount to 5 mm of snow and 23 mm of rain.