No, you’re not imagining it: It has been a warmer start to the winter than usual.

The first few December days so far have been in the 70s, even approaching 80º — That’s about 10º warmer than average for this time of year.

So, why is Austin getting such a hot start to the season?

What’s happening with Austin weather?

Typically, the first freeze of the year in Austin hits in late November or early December. But according to the National Weather Service, that’s not likely to happen any time soon. ❄️

The warmer-than-usual fall is a result of La Niña, a climate pattern that leads to cold waters in the Pacific Ocean + strong trade winds. The impacts of this phenomenon lead to warmer, drier weather in the South.

The Pacific transitioned into La Niña earlier this fall, and the event can last from nine months to years.

Was fall hotter than normal?

Austin’s fall — which, in climate science, lasts from September to November — was also unusually warm.

Here’s what the data shows:

September 2021: 84.5º | Historical average: 77º
October 2021: 70.6º | Historical average: 70º
November 2021: 69º | Historical average: 58º

What are the long-term trends?

Like many cities around the US, Austin is getting hotter.

Over the last 120 years, there have been ~15 days over 100º yearly in Austin. But over the last 20 years, that average has increased to 35 days.

What does that mean for this winter?

A hot start to the season doesn’t mean there won’t be significant freezes in the next few months. Last year, just a month before the hit of Winter Storm Uri, Austin’s first six weeks of winter were the second-warmest in history.

That said, there’s a 90% chance that La Niña will rule the rest of the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the current weather trend will continue into a dry, warm winter. ☀️