Tuesday, Sept. 22 is the first day of fall, but it won't exactly feel like it. Recent temperatures have many of us asking: When’s it going to cool down in Chattanooga?

While exact weather conditions can’t be predicted more than a week or so in advance, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center can give us a broader look at trends for October, November, and December.

🌡️ Temperature

Chattanooga has a 33-40% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures this fall. That doesn’t mean every day will be warmer than usual, just that the overall odds favor a warmer-than-normal season.

🌨️ Precipitation

Keep those umbrellas handy. Chattanooga also has a 33-40% chance of seeing above-normal precipitation this fall. In other words, we could be in for a wetter-than-usual season.

We're expecting slightly above-average temperatures this season. | Map via the NOAA

🍁 Cool down in October

October is when things typically start feeling more like fall around here. The average high temperature drops to 70°, while the average low is around 49°. It also tends to be one of Chattanooga’s least humid months of the year — cue the collective sigh of relief.

🧤November's numbers

Historically, temperatures in November fluctuate between 40° and 58°. It’s also typically the first month after summer when Chattanooga can see snowfall. But with this year’s seasonal outlook leaning warmer than normal, whether we get any flakes remains to be seen.

❄️ Winter is coming in December

In the last month of the year, fall transitions to winter, with an average high temperature of 50° and an average low around 36°. Couple those temps with December having the least amount of daylight of any month, and it’s a recipe for staying cozy inside.