We know the question on your mind, Columbians — when’s it going to get cool? Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November. While exact fall weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what fall will bring.

Reminder: The first day of fall is on Sunday, Sept. 22.

Expect a warmer fall for Columbia. | Image via the noaa.gov

🌡️ Temperature

Think warm. This fall, Cola has a 40-50% chance of temperatures being higher than normal, which is higher than last year’s prediction of 33-40%.

🌨️ Precipitation

Precipitation trends are expected to lean above average through December. Usually, Cola averages 3.94 inches of rain in September, 2.89 inches in October, 2.88 inches in November, and 3.38 in December.

What September has in store

Typically in Columbia, September’s temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 67.5°F and an average high of 84.6°, but according to the map, expect to see more of those warmer days this year. If you aren’t a fan of the heat, we have some good news: The average high drops ~5° in September. Pro tip: September has an average daily maximum UV index of 6-7, so don’t slack on the sunscreen.

Cooling down in October

In October, the average high and low temps are between 73.8°F° + 56.3°F. We'll be keeping an eye out for the late-season tropical storms that blow in, but you’ll most likely feel a cool breeze while you stroll through Soda City Market or a crisp and cool night at the South Carolina State Fair.

Next up, November

Historically, average highs in November drop ~10° to 62.6°F, with an average low of 46.2°F. Get ready for moderately chilly days with a gentle breeze. Fun fact: Columbia had its earliest snowfall on November 1, 2014.