We know the question on your mind, Raleighites — when’s it going to get cool? Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November. While exact fall weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what fall will bring.

Reminder: The first day of fall is Sunday, Sept. 22.

Temps will be 33-40% above normal in Sacto this fall. | Map via NOAA

Temperature

Think warm. This fall, Raleigh has a 40-50% chance of temperatures being higher than normal, which is lower than last year's prediction of 33-40%.

Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. Raleigh has a 40-50% chance of seeing higher-than-average rainfall this fall. Be ready for any potential hurricanes through November with our hurricane preparedness guide.

What September has in store

Typically in Raleigh, September’s temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 64° and an average high of 82°F, but expect to see more of those near-80° days this year. If you aren’t a fan of the heat, we have some good news: The average high drops ~6° in September. Pro tip: September is one of the highest humidity months in Raleigh with an average relative humidity of 76%.

Onward with October

In October, the average high and low temps are 71° and 54°. There isn’t much rainfall, so plan for warm, clear days, perfect for strolling through the NC State Fair with a fried treat. Did you know? October is the driest month in Raleigh. On average, there’s only around 2.13 inches of precipitation during the spooky season.

Next up, November

Historically, average highs drop to 60° in November with an average low of 43°. Get ready for moderately chilly days with a gentle breeze to start the holiday season. Fun fact: Raleigh had its earliest snowfall of at least 0.1 inches on Nov. 6, 1953.

Make the most of the cool weather

There’s no shortage of things to do in Raleigh this fall. Here are just a few of the events our team is eyeing.

IBMA Bluegrass Live!, Sept. 27-Sept. 28 | The largest bluegrass fest in the world will have its last event in Raleigh before moving to Chattanooga. Expect plenty of banjo pluckin’ and good eats throughout downtown.

Carolina Hurricanes opening night, Friday, Oct. 11 | The Canes will face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their first game of the season.

NC State Fair, Oct. 17-27 | Carnival rides, fried food, tractor pulls, and local agriculture — what's not to love? Folks flock from across the Tar Heel State for this world-class state fair right in our backyards.

Moonlight in the Garden, Nov. 2; 8-9; and 14-16 | JC Raulston Arboretum will be illuminated for a nighttime experience like no other.

Raleigh Christmas Parade, Nov. 18 | Whether you like it or not, the holidays are coming, and what better way to celebrate than with the 80th iteration of this historic parade.