We know the question on your mind, Ashevillians — how cold will this winter be? And when’s it going to snow?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for December, January, and February. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The official first day of winter is on Wednesday, Dec. 21.

🌡️ Temperature

Think warmer than we’re used to. This winter, Asheville has a 40-50% chance of temperatures being higher than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect about average precipitation. Asheville is predicted to experience ordinary snow and rainfall amounts for the season.

☀️ Drought

Drought conditions are expected to develop this season.

December will (likely) dole out snow

Usually, we see our first snow of the season in December, when temperatures fluctuate between an average low of 33.8° and an average high of 48.4°. Pro tip: December is also when we see the most rainfall, with rain falling an average of 10 days and typically aggregating up to 3.54 inches of precipitation.

January is the coldest month

Bundle up, because January is typically the coldest month in Asheville. The average high and low temps are between 44.1° + 27.7°. There's also plenty of precipitation, with an average of 10.9 days of rain and 2.5 days of snowfall. So go ahead, dig up those snow boots and sleds now.

February: the frost continues

Historically, the average high temperature in February is 48.9° with an average low of 31.6°. It's also the month with the highest number of snow days — on average, Asheville sees 4.1 snow days out of its annual 12.1 average.

Don't like snow? Don't despair: the average daily sunshine does increase from 5.6 hours in January to 6.9 hours in February. We’re already sighing with relief.