We know the question on your mind, TBAY — when’s it going to get cold?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in the Tampa Bay area for December, January, and February. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: The first day of winter is Thursday, Dec. 21.

Take a peek at the new season's predicted temperatures. | Screenshot via National Weather Service

Temperature

Think cool. This winter, Tampa Bay has equal chances of temperatures being higher or lower than normal. In other words, this one is hard to predict.

Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. The Tampa Bay area has a 60-70% chance of seeing higher than average rainfall amounts this winter.

Drought

Drought conditions are expected to improve this season.

December

Cooler weather is here to stay, and we're sighing with relief. Typically in Tampa, December's temperatures fluctuate between 58.1° on cooler nights and an average high of 72°. This is the least sunny month of the year for the Cigar City, but the clear skies and cooler temps still make for excellent outdoor celebrations and activities weather.

January

This might be the time to pull out your wetsuit and pack a blanket for the beach. In January, the average high and low temps are between 67.8° + 53.4°. This is the coldest month of the year — for the ocean too. During January, the average ocean temperature is 64.8°, with it becoming less comfortable to take a dip once the temperature is below 69.8°. The first month of the year is also the the month with the lowest UV index — the average maximum is 4.

February

Tampa starts to defrost (metaphorically speaking) from an average high of 67.8° in January to a balmy 71.8° in February. But still expect to pack a light jacket for that date night — the month's low-temperature averages about 56.7°. Pro tip: February marks the beginning of more sunny days as we approach spring.

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