We know the question on your mind, Tampa Bay residents — when’s it going to get cool?

Thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, we know what temperatures and precipitation trends to expect in our city for September, October, and November. While exact weather conditions typically can’t be predicted more than a week in advance, here’s a seasonal outlook to help you prepare for what winter will bring.

Reminder: Fall started on Sunday, Sept. 22.

Fall is officially here, TBAY. | Graphic via NOAA

🌡️ Temperature

We know how Florida weather is — it's usually pretty warm. This fall will be no different. The Tampa Bay area has a 50-60% chance of temperatures being higher than normal.

🌨️ Precipitation

Expect slightly more precipitation. The area has a 40-50% chance of seeing higher than average rainfall amounts this fall.

Keep those rain jackets handy. | Graphic via NOAA

September

This month marks the transition from summer to fall, but toastier temperatures may stick around. The September average for the Tampa Bay area is 83°, and the prediction for higher-than-normal temps this fall mean we probably won't be bustin' out the flannels quite yet.

October

Temperatures start to cool off a bit more in October, with the average low sitting around 69°. The average high for this month is 86°, but gentle breezes typically help us from getting too warm.

November

November is when we really start to see some cooler temps. Historically, highs are in the mid-70°s this month, and rainfall is much lower — plan for clear days that are perfect for throwing on a light jacket, grabbing a coffee, and taking a stroll.
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